Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 82292.376846 86874.039301 91455.322190 96376.699696 101510.526965 106704.743268 112353.988261
2025-05-11 74312.436575 81288.842268 88461.449016 96376.823717 104856.644814 113658.356812 123474.522507
2025-05-18 68767.258925 77372.118691 86414.921744 96605.638971 107749.156851 119543.109072 132947.773488
2025-05-25 64378.434348 74177.371450 84666.276645 96694.828876 110072.358250 124458.044223 141061.528367
2025-06-01 61458.950215 72288.960561 84067.189954 97777.870562 113247.062518 130107.274573 149819.153716
2025-06-08 58134.452616 69697.665124 82459.049132 97519.272566 114735.102060 133728.778509 156193.939809
2025-06-15 56280.677052 68632.444966 82442.528157 98938.537081 118013.319628 139282.298530 164692.776514
2025-06-22 54266.351777 67250.760679 81947.542541 99703.066044 120455.504249 143824.300734 172004.299953
2025-06-29 52091.976755 65564.022327 80993.315218 99836.626737 122085.569532 147373.800571 178136.216943
2025-07-06 50073.795154 63963.887117 80051.383704 99901.135481 123564.355008 150696.188390 183972.370394
2025-07-13 49147.112924 63619.926956 80551.446121 101634.416807 126982.561414 156271.588997 192453.034761
2025-07-20 48154.985191 63141.560478 80844.646977 103082.647210 130037.926215 161413.902361 200439.254574
2025-07-27 46788.191149 62170.782913 80524.199596 103788.075755 132222.799794 165570.201038 207336.945170
2025-08-03 45122.414322 60769.454983 79627.600000 103748.868136 133478.349804 168605.996759 212907.330019
2025-08-10 43697.190819 59616.272408 78988.724851 103983.218106 135034.161402 171984.231385 218888.902045
2025-08-17 42292.449700 58436.775138 78270.137431 104076.033857 136382.698421 175091.620245 224539.122086
2025-08-24 41467.061152 57967.595197 78414.940624 105225.122796 139024.615514 179774.524097 232125.831116
2025-08-31 40039.181366 56667.275531 77462.432257 104950.583905 139860.259473 182223.223742 236970.617593
2025-09-07 39483.790659 56487.327379 77922.502963 106456.734975 142925.906170 187430.213300 245239.171865
2025-09-14 38656.736921 55917.606465 77855.213466 107267.973672 145102.876269 191536.300775 252162.208822
2025-09-21 37586.022190 54987.710065 77289.546268 107409.687077 146409.094722 194547.567171 257727.586434
2025-09-28 36536.345379 54053.270464 76688.173984 107478.133000 147601.307376 197405.629356 263104.175351
2025-10-05 36258.898772 54156.209874 77444.826752 109317.024001 151076.060466 203156.603178 272151.091997